Studying how many low-magnitude earthquakes occur compared to larger ones could help improve predictions of volcanic eruptions.
It was published in the magazine Science Advances the research “Earthquake frequency-magnitude distribution at Mount Etna sheds light on magma ascent in the volcano's plumbing system” edited by a team of researchers from the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV)The study highlights how volcanic eruption forecasts could be improved by analyzing the relationship between the number of low- and high-magnitude earthquakes.
Today, active volcanoes in densely populated areas are monitored through geological observations and geophysical and geochemical data that provide information on magma movements in the middle and superficial parts of the Earth's crust, while the phases of recharge at depth remain poorly understood. These data also provide insights into volcanic activity, which is mostly limited to short-term periods.
"Studying the variations in space and time of the so-called b-value, a seismological parameter that describes how often low-magnitude earthquakes occur compared to stronger ones, can allow us to investigate the movements of magma from the deep crust to the surface.” explained Marco Firetto Carlino, first author of the research.
By analyzing twenty years of seismicity (2005-2024) recorded in the Etna area, the authors were able to distinguish the different phases of magma ascent: from recharge in the deep crust (up to about 30 km below sea level), to transfer and accumulation at intermediate depths, up to the ascent towards the surface. The results also show that Variations in this parameter could anticipate the geochemical signals linked to the rising magma by months. “This is because earthquakes immediately reveal the movements of magma at depth, while gases, before being detected on the surface, must travel through several kilometers of the Earth's crust.” concluded Marco Firetto Carlino.
Link at the studio:
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adx9873
Link to evaluate:
National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV)
INGV Etna Observatory – Catania section
