Operational earthquake forecasting in Italy: the case of the April 6, 2009, L'Aquila earthquake
| Cosa | seminari |
|---|---|
| Quando | 13/10/2009 da 11:00 al 14:00 |
| Dove | Roma Sala Conferenze |
| Persona di riferimento | Sabina Vallati |
| Indirizzo e-mail per contatti | |
| Recapito telefonico per contatti | 0651860426 |
| Aggiungi l'evento al calendario |  vCal (Windows, Linux) iCal (Mac OS X) |
13 ottobre 2009, ore 11:00 | Warner Marzocchi | Sala Conferenze Roma | Sezione Sismologia e Tettonofisica, Roma1
ABSTRACT
The recent large earthquake that devastated the city of L'Aquila (located in the Abruzzo region, with a population of about 73,000) gave us a unique opportunity to check our operational long- and short- term earthquake forecasting capability. Here, we describe this experience discussing in detail two issues.
First, we analyze the performances of the available long- and short- term forecasting models in a real prospective experiment. Specifically, we compare the long-term forecasts of different time- dependent and time-independent models (the new official hazard map included) that were proposed in the last few years for that region. For the short-term, immediately following the April 6 event, we began producing daily earthquake forecasts for the region, and we provided these forecasts to Civil Protection - the agency responsible for managing the emergency. The forecasts are based on a stochastic ETES (Epidemic-Type Earthquake Sequence) model that combines the Gutenberg- Richter distribution of earthquake magnitudes and power-law decay in space and time of triggered earthquakes. After one month we compare the forecasts and the real observations in order to evaluate our operational ability to track the evolution of an earthquake sequence in real-time.
Second, we discuss how these probabilistic estimations have been practically used to manage the crisis. In particular, this experience demonstrates an urgent need for a connection between probabilistic forecasts and decision-making in order to establish - before crises - quantitative and transparent protocols for decision support. Some possible strategies to create this connection between probabilities and decision making are presented.
The recent large earthquake that devastated the city of L'Aquila (located in the Abruzzo region, with a population of about 73,000) gave us a unique opportunity to check our operational long- and short- term earthquake forecasting capability. Here, we describe this experience discussing in detail two issues.
First, we analyze the performances of the available long- and short- term forecasting models in a real prospective experiment. Specifically, we compare the long-term forecasts of different time- dependent and time-independent models (the new official hazard map included) that were proposed in the last few years for that region. For the short-term, immediately following the April 6 event, we began producing daily earthquake forecasts for the region, and we provided these forecasts to Civil Protection - the agency responsible for managing the emergency. The forecasts are based on a stochastic ETES (Epidemic-Type Earthquake Sequence) model that combines the Gutenberg- Richter distribution of earthquake magnitudes and power-law decay in space and time of triggered earthquakes. After one month we compare the forecasts and the real observations in order to evaluate our operational ability to track the evolution of an earthquake sequence in real-time.
Second, we discuss how these probabilistic estimations have been practically used to manage the crisis. In particular, this experience demonstrates an urgent need for a connection between probabilistic forecasts and decision-making in order to establish - before crises - quantitative and transparent protocols for decision support. Some possible strategies to create this connection between probabilities and decision making are presented.